For the first time, what went to HVP in terms of cadres and votes 10 years ago — courtesy the stature of Bansi Lal, could fall into smaller tranches to HJC-BJP combine, Smast Bharatiya Party, and Aam Aadmi Party. But who gets to bite bigger portion is a question which hasn’t found an answer.
With Mange Ram Gupta’s exit from the party on Tuesday, worries have started beginning for the Congress party. Apart from Mange Ram’s exit, remember that Congress hasn’t helped itself in terms of saving its reputation – with the former minister of state for home and local bodies Gopal Kanda in jail following accusations of abatement to suicide in the case of Geetika Sharma. However, HPCC chief says, Mange Ram has done a mistake if he has left Congress.
Couple this with other issues haunting the Hooda government, such as the sale of land to Robert Vadra, which was objected to by senior IAS officer Ashok Khemka and huge opposition to land acquisition and the Congress has a lot of damage control to do.
While INLD would definitely look to benefit from the general grumble of voters in the state, it would have to fight it out in what could become a dog-eat-dog atmosphere in the presence of HJC-BJP, SBP and AAP.
A look at the 2009 assembly elections suggests that HJC, BJP and BSP had an individual vote share of 7%, 9% and 7% which aggregates to a total of 23%. Sharing of seats between these parties and new political outfits would dent the bigger political parties like the Congress, which had a vote share of 35 per cent and the INLD which had 26 per cent. This could definitely change the political scenario quite completely.
Gearing up in right earnest would be the HJC-BJP combine, who will organise a rally at Hisar on December 2. Many national BJP leaders would grace the occasion. There are indications from the facebook message of HJC supremo Kuldeep Bishnoi’s brother Chander Mohan that Mange Ram could join HJC. Would it be on December two?
Hisar a Bishnoi or the Bhajan Lal bastion could be an interesting place to watch. How does the political pitch of Hisar behave is a difficult question. Given that AAP national convener Arvind Kejriwal himself belongs to the place.
Another worry for the political outfits in Haryana is the Aam Aadmi Party. Arvind Kejriwal, who is from Hisar would definitely make some impact in the district if not the state. His claims in the Hisar bye-elections proved quite right even if many disagreed and attributed Congress candidate’s loss of security deposit to last minute shifting of votes to the INLD.
A look at the caste lines in Haryana suggest quite clearly that Jats are instrumental in forming the government in the state with they making the 25 per cent of the total population. Ahirs with 10 percent, Chamars with 10 per cent, Brahmins and Baniyas at seven and five percent respectively are too scattered to impact the elections till the time, politics is driven by meirt of the candidate than caste. And it is here that the Aam Aadmi Party too stand little chance. After all, they too will have to play the game by the rules already set — which is play the caste factor, creed, etc to grab votes of the common man. Will Kejriwal dirty his hands or force set new rules is a big question.
Apart from Congress and INLD, HJC, AAP and SBP too would make the field more volatile in Haryana. The question really is who gets to fill the void left after Bansi Lal’s exit.
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